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NZD: NZD Falls On Tariffs Headlines, Breaks Back Below 0.5600

NZD
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  • The NZD/USD closed Friday 0.02% lower at 0.5634, and marked the fifth straight session of selling. It was a rather quiet session on Friday, however over the weekend Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico & China which has now see most G10 currencies open much lower, with the NZD trading -0.76% to 0.5591, with only the JPY trading higher.
  • Focus today will be largely on any further Tariff headlines, China still remains out for Lunar New Year today although Hong Kong returns.
  • The kiwi has broken back below the 0.5600 while technical indicators are now turning bearish again with the MACD printing red bars, while the RSI indicator is now at 38. Initial support is now the YTD lows of 0.5545 (Jan 12). Resistance is 0.5720-25 area (50-day EMA/ Jan highs)
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap rose 4bps on Friday to -73.5bps vs the Jan highs of -66bps.
  • There is little change to RBNZ dated-OIS with the market pricing in a 97% chance of a 50bps cut at next months meeting, however rate cut pricing firmed further out the curve with cumulative 136bps priced through to November, up 13bps.
  • No large nearby strikes Monday, Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5525 (NZD680m Feb. 6), 0.5395 (NZD471.2m Feb. 6), 0.5700 (NZD379.1m Feb. 5)
  • There isn't much on the calendar today, with focus turning to building permits on Tuesday and Employment data on Wednesday
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  • The NZD/USD closed Friday 0.02% lower at 0.5634, and marked the fifth straight session of selling. It was a rather quiet session on Friday, however over the weekend Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico & China which has now see most G10 currencies open much lower, with the NZD trading -0.76% to 0.5591, with only the JPY trading higher.
  • Focus today will be largely on any further Tariff headlines, China still remains out for Lunar New Year today although Hong Kong returns.
  • The kiwi has broken back below the 0.5600 while technical indicators are now turning bearish again with the MACD printing red bars, while the RSI indicator is now at 38. Initial support is now the YTD lows of 0.5545 (Jan 12). Resistance is 0.5720-25 area (50-day EMA/ Jan highs)
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap rose 4bps on Friday to -73.5bps vs the Jan highs of -66bps.
  • There is little change to RBNZ dated-OIS with the market pricing in a 97% chance of a 50bps cut at next months meeting, however rate cut pricing firmed further out the curve with cumulative 136bps priced through to November, up 13bps.
  • No large nearby strikes Monday, Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5525 (NZD680m Feb. 6), 0.5395 (NZD471.2m Feb. 6), 0.5700 (NZD379.1m Feb. 5)
  • There isn't much on the calendar today, with focus turning to building permits on Tuesday and Employment data on Wednesday