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NZD, GBP Slide as Disinflationary Themes Build

FOREX
  • The greenback is favoured in early Tuesday trade, tipping the USD Index back within range of the week's highest levels. Equities trade in negative territory despite the positive close on Wall Street Monday, adding to a general risk-off theme. Headlines from Iran's Khamenei may have added to the downside bias, as the Iranian leader threatened that opposition countries could unit against Israel if the the Gaza strikes do not stop immediately.
  • NZD trades under pressure, with NZD/USD showing below the 0.5900 handle following the below-forecast NZ CPI, which saw the Q3 Y/Y rate slow to 5.6% from 5.9% previously. Initial focus for the pair is on 0.5859, the September low and lowest since November of last year.
  • Elsewhere, GBP trades poorly following this morning's pay data: average weekly earnings for August came in below expectations at +8.1% vs. Exp. +8.3%, raising the focus on Wednesday's inflation release. Markets expected headline Y/Y CPI to step lower, but for services CPI to remain stubbornly at 6.8%.
  • GBP/USD is offered headed into NY hours, with the pair shedding ~70 pips off the Monday evening recovery high. 1.2143 is expected to provide scant support ahead of pullback lows at 1.2123. Weakness through that mark would prove bearish, opening the bear trigger at 1.2037.
  • Focus Tuesday turns to the September US retail sales and industrial production releases as well as inflation data from Canada. The central bank speaker slate is busy, with BoE's Dhingra, Fed's Williams, Bowman, Barkin & Kashkari and ECB's Knot, Centeno, de Guindos, Holzmann and Nagel.
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