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NZD: NZD Jumps 1% As Geopolitical Tensions Cool

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  • The NZD/USD rose 1.05% on Thursday to 0.5765, it's highest level for the year. The move higher comes as there is growing optimism are a Russia-Ukraine peace deal with Trump announcing that he will also meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin before the end of this month, while downside risk from RBNZ cuts is largely priced in now.
  • Key levels to watch include, 0.5786 (100-Day EMA), a break here would open a move to retest 0.5800. To the downside, a break back below the 50-Day EMA at 0.5700 would open a move to 0.5676 (20-day EMA) and the Feb 12 lows of 0.5600.
  • Following Wednesday's 50bps cut, RBNZ dated-OIS is pricing another 25 bps cut at the next meeting in April, followed by about a 70% cut of another 25bps cut in May, there is a cumulative 65bps of cuts priced through to year-end.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap saw a 10bps swing on Wednesday, reaching a high of -64bps, before settling at -66bps.
  • Shortly we have New Zealand Trade balance data
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  • The NZD/USD rose 1.05% on Thursday to 0.5765, it's highest level for the year. The move higher comes as there is growing optimism are a Russia-Ukraine peace deal with Trump announcing that he will also meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin before the end of this month, while downside risk from RBNZ cuts is largely priced in now.
  • Key levels to watch include, 0.5786 (100-Day EMA), a break here would open a move to retest 0.5800. To the downside, a break back below the 50-Day EMA at 0.5700 would open a move to 0.5676 (20-day EMA) and the Feb 12 lows of 0.5600.
  • Following Wednesday's 50bps cut, RBNZ dated-OIS is pricing another 25 bps cut at the next meeting in April, followed by about a 70% cut of another 25bps cut in May, there is a cumulative 65bps of cuts priced through to year-end.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap saw a 10bps swing on Wednesday, reaching a high of -64bps, before settling at -66bps.
  • Shortly we have New Zealand Trade balance data