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NZD: NZD/USD Breaks Losing Streak, Hovers Near Yearly Lows

NZD
USGlobalAPACNew ZealandBulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • NZD/USD rose 0.27% to 0.5866 on Friday, ending a 5-day run of losing sessions. The pair fell 1.70% over the past week, and hit a new yearly low if 0.5840 while volatility increased slightly on Friday with the pair trading in a 60-pip range.
  • The currency is now 8% off the highs made on Oct 1st and continues to hover just off the lows made last week. This is the third time over the past year the pair has reached these lows, with the prior to moves met with sharp reversals.
  • Taking a look at technical levels, a clear break of last weeks lows would be needed to reach key support of 0.5774 (Oct 26 lows/ 2023 lows). Initial resistance is 0.5900 (Round number) a move back above here would see a test of 0.5960 (20-day EMA).
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing was little changed on Friday with 52bps of cuts priced in for November, down from a high of 59bps of cuts priced in prior week. Looking out to 2025 there are 87bps of cuts priced for Feb and 107bps by April, while further out the curve the market expects 128bps of cuts by Oct 2025.
  • The US-NZ 2yr swap rose 1bp on Friday to -32bps and trades well off recent lows of -45bps
  • Today's expiries are 0.5500 ($450m), 0.5835 ($628m), 0.5970 ($390m) November 18th cut
  • Non Resident Bond Holdings at 1pm AEDT
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  • NZD/USD rose 0.27% to 0.5866 on Friday, ending a 5-day run of losing sessions. The pair fell 1.70% over the past week, and hit a new yearly low if 0.5840 while volatility increased slightly on Friday with the pair trading in a 60-pip range.
  • The currency is now 8% off the highs made on Oct 1st and continues to hover just off the lows made last week. This is the third time over the past year the pair has reached these lows, with the prior to moves met with sharp reversals.
  • Taking a look at technical levels, a clear break of last weeks lows would be needed to reach key support of 0.5774 (Oct 26 lows/ 2023 lows). Initial resistance is 0.5900 (Round number) a move back above here would see a test of 0.5960 (20-day EMA).
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing was little changed on Friday with 52bps of cuts priced in for November, down from a high of 59bps of cuts priced in prior week. Looking out to 2025 there are 87bps of cuts priced for Feb and 107bps by April, while further out the curve the market expects 128bps of cuts by Oct 2025.
  • The US-NZ 2yr swap rose 1bp on Friday to -32bps and trades well off recent lows of -45bps
  • Today's expiries are 0.5500 ($450m), 0.5835 ($628m), 0.5970 ($390m) November 18th cut
  • Non Resident Bond Holdings at 1pm AEDT