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NZD: NZD/USD Continues Fall As USD Rallies, Home Sales Jump

NZD
USGlobalAPACNew ZealandBulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • NZDUSD dropped 0.83% to 0.5877 on Wednesday, extending its bearish streak with the pair now trading 2.65% lower since November 7th.
  • The move was largely linked to a strong USD, this came despite the softer-than-expected US supercore inflation data and front-end treasury yields declining, weakness for the greenback was extremely short-lived. The underlying dollar optimism continues to prevail and has resulted in the BBDXY rising to yearly highs of 1,284.72
  • The RSI is at 33 indicates oversold conditions while MACD indicator suggest rising selling pressure and continued bearish outlook.
  • New Zealand's REINZ home sales jumped 20% in Oct. While inflation adjusted real existing home sales average price fell by 2.2% y/y, and nominal home prices remained unchanged, per BBG. With inflation at 2.2% for the month, real house prices marked their 30th consecutive monthly decline.
  • Taking a look at technical levels, Key support remains at 0.5876 (July 26 lows) a break here would signal a full reversal of the July 26 to Oct 1 bull cycle, below here the yearly lows of 0.5850 (Aug 5) becomes a target. Initial resistance is 0.5988 (20-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 0.6040 (Nov 8 highs)
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is steady for the November meeting with 53bps of cuts priced in for November, down from a high of 59bps of cuts priced in last week, and equates to a roughly 14% chance of a 75bps cut. Feb pricing cooled 2bps to 87bps of cumulative cuts, while further out the curve the market expects 129bps of cuts by Oct 2025.
  • The US-NZ 2yr swap rose 4bps on Wednesday to -27.5bps, and have now jumped almost 20bps from the lows of -45bps made last week.
  • No expiries today, keys future expiries are 0.5980 ($297m), 0.6000 ($296m), 0.6060 ($247m), 0.6100 ($196m) Nov 15th
  • The calendar is empty for the remainder of the day
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  • NZDUSD dropped 0.83% to 0.5877 on Wednesday, extending its bearish streak with the pair now trading 2.65% lower since November 7th.
  • The move was largely linked to a strong USD, this came despite the softer-than-expected US supercore inflation data and front-end treasury yields declining, weakness for the greenback was extremely short-lived. The underlying dollar optimism continues to prevail and has resulted in the BBDXY rising to yearly highs of 1,284.72
  • The RSI is at 33 indicates oversold conditions while MACD indicator suggest rising selling pressure and continued bearish outlook.
  • New Zealand's REINZ home sales jumped 20% in Oct. While inflation adjusted real existing home sales average price fell by 2.2% y/y, and nominal home prices remained unchanged, per BBG. With inflation at 2.2% for the month, real house prices marked their 30th consecutive monthly decline.
  • Taking a look at technical levels, Key support remains at 0.5876 (July 26 lows) a break here would signal a full reversal of the July 26 to Oct 1 bull cycle, below here the yearly lows of 0.5850 (Aug 5) becomes a target. Initial resistance is 0.5988 (20-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 0.6040 (Nov 8 highs)
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is steady for the November meeting with 53bps of cuts priced in for November, down from a high of 59bps of cuts priced in last week, and equates to a roughly 14% chance of a 75bps cut. Feb pricing cooled 2bps to 87bps of cumulative cuts, while further out the curve the market expects 129bps of cuts by Oct 2025.
  • The US-NZ 2yr swap rose 4bps on Wednesday to -27.5bps, and have now jumped almost 20bps from the lows of -45bps made last week.
  • No expiries today, keys future expiries are 0.5980 ($297m), 0.6000 ($296m), 0.6060 ($247m), 0.6100 ($196m) Nov 15th
  • The calendar is empty for the remainder of the day