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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Slightly Higher, Building Approvals Drop

NZD
  • NZD/USD closed Monday up 0.11% at 0.6342, the pair made tried twice to break above 0.6380 making new yearly highs of 0.6379 this was met with a gap up in the USD following a speech from Powell, where he mentioned the central bank will lower interest rates “over time,” while again emphasizing that the overall US economy remains on solid footing.
  • Earlier this morning, NZIER published its quarterly survey of business opinion with 31% of firms reporting worse trading in 3Q, although only 1% of firms see the economy further deteriorating. New Zealand Home Building approvals also fell 5.3% m/m.
  • Initial resistance is now at the overnight highs of 0.6379 with a break here then targeting 0.6393 (July 2023 Highs), to the downside a break back below 0.6300 would then on a move to the 0.6243 (20-day EMA). The RSI is at 65, while the MACD indicator is showing increasing green bars.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing has cooled 3bps into year-end, with 88bps of cuts now priced by November. Further out the to August meeting, we have also cooled about 5-10bps, with 219bps of cuts priced.
  • The NZ-US 2yr fell 2bps to 7bps on Monday
  • Expiries: 0.5575 ($600m) Oct 2 & 0.6310 ($1.06b) Oct 3
  • The calendar is light on this week, with just ANZ Commodity prices on Thursday of note.
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