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NZD: NZD/USD Tests Yearly Highs On China Optimism

NZD
  • The NZD was the top G10 currency on Tuesday, aided by China stimulus news which has filtering through to risk sensitive currencies such as the NZD. the NZDUSD closed 1.16% higher with the latest leg higher gaining momentum through the August highs around 0.6300. The morning high at 0.6328 matches the year’s peak from Jan 02, with 0.6369 now the most obvious short-term target for the move.
  • The currency was also supported by lower US yields, with the short-end falling about 5bps following weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence which pushed the USD index back into its weakening trend, closing the session down 0.46%.
  • The NZD has now rallied 3.31% from its September lows.
  • The pair is now testing the yearly highs at 0.6340 which a break above here opening a move to June 2023 highs at 0.6369, with 0.6400 the next target, to the downside 0.6260 (Sep 24 lows) and 0.6217 (20-day EMA) are key supports. The RSI is now at 69 nearing overbought territory, while the MACD is also green and climbing, further suggesting growing buying pressure.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing was little changed on Tuesday, the market is pricing 42bps of cuts at the next meeting in October, and 88bps of cuts into year-end.
  • The NZ-US 2yr was volatile on Tuesday, swinging 10bps only to close little changed at 19bps
  • Expiries: 0.6320 ($522.15m) Sept 25, 0.6340 ($608.83m), 0.6330 ($521.34m), 0.6225 ($526.66m) Sep 26
  • The calendar is empty today
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  • The NZD was the top G10 currency on Tuesday, aided by China stimulus news which has filtering through to risk sensitive currencies such as the NZD. the NZDUSD closed 1.16% higher with the latest leg higher gaining momentum through the August highs around 0.6300. The morning high at 0.6328 matches the year’s peak from Jan 02, with 0.6369 now the most obvious short-term target for the move.
  • The currency was also supported by lower US yields, with the short-end falling about 5bps following weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence which pushed the USD index back into its weakening trend, closing the session down 0.46%.
  • The NZD has now rallied 3.31% from its September lows.
  • The pair is now testing the yearly highs at 0.6340 which a break above here opening a move to June 2023 highs at 0.6369, with 0.6400 the next target, to the downside 0.6260 (Sep 24 lows) and 0.6217 (20-day EMA) are key supports. The RSI is now at 69 nearing overbought territory, while the MACD is also green and climbing, further suggesting growing buying pressure.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing was little changed on Tuesday, the market is pricing 42bps of cuts at the next meeting in October, and 88bps of cuts into year-end.
  • The NZ-US 2yr was volatile on Tuesday, swinging 10bps only to close little changed at 19bps
  • Expiries: 0.6320 ($522.15m) Sept 25, 0.6340 ($608.83m), 0.6330 ($521.34m), 0.6225 ($526.66m) Sep 26
  • The calendar is empty today