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NZD On the Up as ANZ Juice RBNZ Expectations

FOREX
  • NZD is Friday's best performing currency, pushing NZD/USD to a one-week high, briefing touching 0.6150 and topping resistance at the 0.6125 20-day EMA. A hold above here could see another attempt at 0.6150. Moves follow ANZ's view change that it sees 25bps hikes for the RBNZ across the February and April meetings this year.
  • AUD/NZD is making fresh lows, hovering around 1.0600 breaking through the lows from Oct, next target would be May lows of 1.0560. Note, a cumulative 63bps of easing is priced by year-end versus 69bps yesterday. However, this is measured from a terminal OCR of 5.71% versus 5.58% yesterday.
  • Weakness across the CHF has continued, with the currency the weakest again in G10. USD/CHF has again cleared to a new YTD high, printing higher highs for a seventh consecutive session.
  • Some attention paid to the pick-up in Swiss FX reserves data earlier this week, and while FX revaluation and equity volatility since the December release may be flattering the headline – markets are wary of the currency after Jordan’s intervention in Davos (“strong CHF hurting Swiss companies”) and the more balanced currency language at the December decision (removing the phrase "the focus is on selling foreign currency.")
  • CPI revisions data could take focus in the upcoming session, with Canadian jobs data also on the docket. Markets expect Canada to have added 15.0k jobs over the month of January, with an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.9%. ECB's Nagel, Cipollone and Fed's Logan are also set to be making appearances.
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