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NZD Remains Best Performer Friday, USDJPY Weekly Close Above 149.00

FOREX
  • After an early extension of post-NFP strength, which saw the USD index climb to its best level since mid-November, the greenback has retraced back to broadly flat on the week as we approach the close. Higher US yields continue to support the dollar, however, the continued rally for major equity indices is providing some resistance to the advance.
  • NZD is Friday's best performing currency, pushing NZDUSD (+0.85%) to a one-week high, trading above 0.6150 and topping resistance at the 0.6125 20-day EMA. Moves follow ANZ's view change that it sees 25bps hikes for the RBNZ across the February and April meetings this year. 0.6174 provides the initial resistance for the pair.
  • The risk-on tone across markets has also leant support to the Australian dollar on Friday, rising 0.5% on the session. With a bearish theme intact, key short-term resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.6625, the Jan 30 high.
  • USDJPY continues to benefit from the higher US yields and the continued dovish rhetoric from the central bank this week. The pair looks set to close above 149.00 for the first time this year, with the pair narrowing the gap to the 150.00 handle, levels not seen since mid-November. Given the constructive technical tone, this opens a move to 149.75, the Nov 22 high and then 150.78, the Nov 17 high.
  • US CPI headlines the docket next Tuesday, landing after the significant trimming of Fed rate cut expectations post-NFP and the subsequent FOMC rhetoric calling for patience with cuts. Core CPI is expected at 0.3% M/M in Jan and today’s revisions shouldn’t have materially swayed these estimates. There will be holidays in China and Japan next week.
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