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NZD: NZD Rises For Second Straight Session, Eyes 50-day EMA

NZD
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  • The NZD rose for a second straight session as the USD takes a breather, the NZD/USD is 0.65% higher at 0.5688 and is now 3.11% off the lows made on Monday, the pair is now trading just under key resistance at 0.5707 (50-day EMA) a level we have been unable to trade above since early October.
  • The moves were supported by waning global trade war risks that have weakened the USD, however the USD regained some ground after strong ADP employment data, which showed 183K private-sector hires in January (above the 150K forecast).
  • Despite this, New Zealand's economic outlook remains uncertain, given its trade ties with China amid escalating US-China tariffs. The RBNZ is expected to maintain a dovish stance, with rate cuts aimed at countering inflation risks.
  • Technical indicators are now bullish with the MACD printing green bars, while the RSI indicator has ticked back above 50 to 55. We broke back above the 20-day EMA on Wednesday and now eye major resistance is 0.5707 (50-day EMA), to the downside a break back below the Monday lows of 0.5515, would be needed to test the 2022 lows of 0.5500.
  • Expiries: 0.5525 (NZD680m), 0.5395 (NZD471.2m), upcoming notable strikes: 0.5935 (NZD411.1m Feb. 11)
  • RBNZ dated OIS softened slightly on Wednesday, with the market now pricing in an 87% chance of a 50bps cut, and cumulative 127bps of cuts by Nov 2025, down from 135bps early Wednesday.
  • It is a very quiet next week on the local calendar with no planned data releases
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  • The NZD rose for a second straight session as the USD takes a breather, the NZD/USD is 0.65% higher at 0.5688 and is now 3.11% off the lows made on Monday, the pair is now trading just under key resistance at 0.5707 (50-day EMA) a level we have been unable to trade above since early October.
  • The moves were supported by waning global trade war risks that have weakened the USD, however the USD regained some ground after strong ADP employment data, which showed 183K private-sector hires in January (above the 150K forecast).
  • Despite this, New Zealand's economic outlook remains uncertain, given its trade ties with China amid escalating US-China tariffs. The RBNZ is expected to maintain a dovish stance, with rate cuts aimed at countering inflation risks.
  • Technical indicators are now bullish with the MACD printing green bars, while the RSI indicator has ticked back above 50 to 55. We broke back above the 20-day EMA on Wednesday and now eye major resistance is 0.5707 (50-day EMA), to the downside a break back below the Monday lows of 0.5515, would be needed to test the 2022 lows of 0.5500.
  • Expiries: 0.5525 (NZD680m), 0.5395 (NZD471.2m), upcoming notable strikes: 0.5935 (NZD411.1m Feb. 11)
  • RBNZ dated OIS softened slightly on Wednesday, with the market now pricing in an 87% chance of a 50bps cut, and cumulative 127bps of cuts by Nov 2025, down from 135bps early Wednesday.
  • It is a very quiet next week on the local calendar with no planned data releases