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NZD Surges as August Rate Hike Now Fully Priced

FOREX
  • EUR/USD is offered ahead of NY hours, with the pair drifting below the 1.1850 mark to chew further through last week's gains. 1.1830 marks first support, the 50% Fib of the late July recovery. A break below here opens 1.18 and the July lows of 1.1752.
  • Following a decent spell of strength across the past few months, CHF is at the bottom end of the table ahead of NY hours, with EUR/CHF bouncing 20 pips or so off yesterday's multi-month lows.
  • NZD is comfortably the strongest performer, with NZD rallying against all others to top the 50-dma for the first time since early June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.0% from 4.7% (4.6% when incorporating revisions), prompting markets to bring forward rate hike bets from the RBNZ - an August rate hike is now fully priced in according to overnight index swaps.
  • US ADP Employment Change is the data highlight Wednesday, with markets expecting job gains to remain consistent at around 680k. ISM Services Index crosses later in the session, with growth seen inching up to 60.5 from 60.1. Comments from Fed's Clarida and Bullard will be keenly eyed - both speak early on in the US trading day.
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