NZD/USD Breaks Back Above 0.6200

The NZD/USD rose 0.40% to 0.6224 on Thursday, ADP employment data & Jobless claims pushed the pair to intraday highs before the slightly stronger-than-expected ISM data caused a brief sell-off, this move was quickly reversed as the pair closed just off session highs.

• NZD/USD hit session lows of 0.6178 on Tuesday, after NZGBs trade about 5bps tighter while US tsys gave back some gains to see yields 1-2bps higher, this move was quickly reversed and we continued to edge higher throughout the day making a high of 0.6226.
• As we remain near long-term range highs, the overall trend still bullish despite recent weakness as we trade above all key moving averages while MACD is now neutral. The uptrend remains intact as the price holds above the August rally trendline.
• Initial support is 0.6165-70 (20-day EMA/Sept 4 lows) below here 0.6128 (Aug 22 lows). The currency broke back above initial resistance on Thursday of 0.6200 a weekly close above here would signal further upside and potential retests of cycle highs at 0.6300.
• RBNZ dated OIS is firmed 1-2bps yesterday heading into year end with 78bps of cuts now priced, and has firmed 6bps over the past week. Looking out to July next year, OIS has 7 cuts now forecast.
• The NZ-US 2yr swap spread is unchanged at 17bps.
• Expiries: There are no notable expires today• Today, we have Volume of All Buildings at 08:45 AEST