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NZD/USD Breaks Out Of Recent Range, Eyes 0.6300

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  • The NZD/USD closed Monday's session up 0.46% at 0.6266 and just off the session's highs. The USD gained following a weaker set of flash PMI data for the Eurozone, although this move was largely erased by the close, while higher beta names including the NZD held up well after major equity benchmarks ticked higher, outside of this there was no major headline driving prices.
  • The pair has broken out of a seven-session sideways range between 0.6210 and 0.6240, signaling increased bullish momentum. The RSI is at 63 and rising, nearing overbought territory, while the MACD is also green and climbing, further suggesting growing buying pressure. Initial resistance is now 0.6300 (August 29th/Cycle highs), above here the yearly highs of 0.6369 (28th Dec). Initial support is 0.6210 (Friday lows), below here 0.6197 (20-day EMA).
  • The Bank of New Zealand's August job ads index, showed a 1.3% m/m decline following a 3.5% gain in July, and a 31% y/y drop. BNZ noted this continues the downward trend over the past two years. Meanwhile, job applications per position have risen by 3% to a new high, indicating a loosening labor market with fewer job ads and increased competition for roles.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing was little changed on Monday, the market is pricing 40bps of cuts at the next meeting in October, and 85bps of cuts into year-end.
  • The NZ-US 2yr was steady at 19bps on Monday
  • Expiries: 0.6320 ($522.15m) Sept 25, 0.6340 ($608.83m), 0.6330 ($521.34m), 0.6225 ($526.66m) Sep 26
  • The calendar is empty today
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  • The NZD/USD closed Monday's session up 0.46% at 0.6266 and just off the session's highs. The USD gained following a weaker set of flash PMI data for the Eurozone, although this move was largely erased by the close, while higher beta names including the NZD held up well after major equity benchmarks ticked higher, outside of this there was no major headline driving prices.
  • The pair has broken out of a seven-session sideways range between 0.6210 and 0.6240, signaling increased bullish momentum. The RSI is at 63 and rising, nearing overbought territory, while the MACD is also green and climbing, further suggesting growing buying pressure. Initial resistance is now 0.6300 (August 29th/Cycle highs), above here the yearly highs of 0.6369 (28th Dec). Initial support is 0.6210 (Friday lows), below here 0.6197 (20-day EMA).
  • The Bank of New Zealand's August job ads index, showed a 1.3% m/m decline following a 3.5% gain in July, and a 31% y/y drop. BNZ noted this continues the downward trend over the past two years. Meanwhile, job applications per position have risen by 3% to a new high, indicating a loosening labor market with fewer job ads and increased competition for roles.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing was little changed on Monday, the market is pricing 40bps of cuts at the next meeting in October, and 85bps of cuts into year-end.
  • The NZ-US 2yr was steady at 19bps on Monday
  • Expiries: 0.6320 ($522.15m) Sept 25, 0.6340 ($608.83m), 0.6330 ($521.34m), 0.6225 ($526.66m) Sep 26
  • The calendar is empty today