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NZD/USD Edges Lower Ahead Of RBNZ, Trades Below 0.6100, Dairy Prices Rise

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The Kiwi finished Tuesday's session down 0.21% at 0.6092, while the BBDXY finished a touch higher, up 0.09% at 1,247.58. Focus today will be on the RBNZ today where they are widely expected to keep rate unchanged, they will also release updated staff forecasts and hold a press conference. Earlier this morning dairy prices again increased.

  • The NZD/USD edged lower ahead of the RBNZ later this morning, closing the session just off intraday lows, but below initial support of 0.6100, the pair have opened Wednesday in line at 0.6093. We still comfortably sit above all moving averages, the 14-day RSI has edged lower again and now holds at 60, while the MACD indictor is showing decreasing green bars.
  • Key levels to watch: Initial resistance of 0.6141 (May 16th highs) above here we target the 0.6200/20 (round number/ March 8 high), while initial support holds at 0.6071 (200-day EMA).
  • The US-NZ 2y is trading near yearly highs, now at -8bps
  • RBNZ Preview – May 2024: Policy To Stay Restrictive - (See Link)
  • GDT dairy prices rose 3.3% from two weeks ago, and now 13% higher over the past year, while volumes are now at a 4-year low. Whole milk powder price average rose 2.96% to $3,408.
  • Option expiries: 0.6100 (NZD677m), 0.5400 (NZD335m) 22st NY Cut while notable upcoming strikes are 0.6175 (NZD479.4m May 23), 0.5915 (NZD434m May 24), 0.6125 (NZD329.4m May 23)
  • Looking ahead: RBNZ rate decision at 12:00, Conference at 13:00 AEST
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The Kiwi finished Tuesday's session down 0.21% at 0.6092, while the BBDXY finished a touch higher, up 0.09% at 1,247.58. Focus today will be on the RBNZ today where they are widely expected to keep rate unchanged, they will also release updated staff forecasts and hold a press conference. Earlier this morning dairy prices again increased.

  • The NZD/USD edged lower ahead of the RBNZ later this morning, closing the session just off intraday lows, but below initial support of 0.6100, the pair have opened Wednesday in line at 0.6093. We still comfortably sit above all moving averages, the 14-day RSI has edged lower again and now holds at 60, while the MACD indictor is showing decreasing green bars.
  • Key levels to watch: Initial resistance of 0.6141 (May 16th highs) above here we target the 0.6200/20 (round number/ March 8 high), while initial support holds at 0.6071 (200-day EMA).
  • The US-NZ 2y is trading near yearly highs, now at -8bps
  • RBNZ Preview – May 2024: Policy To Stay Restrictive - (See Link)
  • GDT dairy prices rose 3.3% from two weeks ago, and now 13% higher over the past year, while volumes are now at a 4-year low. Whole milk powder price average rose 2.96% to $3,408.
  • Option expiries: 0.6100 (NZD677m), 0.5400 (NZD335m) 22st NY Cut while notable upcoming strikes are 0.6175 (NZD479.4m May 23), 0.5915 (NZD434m May 24), 0.6125 (NZD329.4m May 23)
  • Looking ahead: RBNZ rate decision at 12:00, Conference at 13:00 AEST