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(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence


(Z1) Testing Bear Trigger


Corrective Pullback

KIWI: NZD/USD finished > $0.6400 at the close of play last week, even after Fed
Chair Powell managed to push the USD off worst levels. Rate last deals at
$0.6426, ~25 pips higher on the day, reversing the blip lower that was apparent
into last week's close (which could have been profit taking, may have been
exacerbated by low volume).
- The close above $0.6400 will have cemented bullish hopes, after the cross
registered 4 consecutive higher closes between Tuesday & Friday, with the recent
round of positivity surrounding Sino-U.S. trade matters front & centre. Also
worth flagging that the latest round of CFTC data revealed that NZD net short
non-commercial positioning as a % of open interest is at the highest levels seen
since Sep '18.
- Local Q2 manufacturing data came out soft, but NZD is little moved.
Participants have had to be cognisant of the latest round of PBoC RRR cuts,
announced Friday and disappointing Chinese trade data released over the weekend.
- Friday's high of $0.6444 provides initial resistance. Conversely, a break
below $0.6400 would allow bears to target the 21-DMA at $0.6389.
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