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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bear Threat Still Present


UK Inflation sets the tone for core FI


6/12-month BT


Leads against the Dollar

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The combination of the uptick in regional equity markets and a firmer than expected round of official PMI data out of China is providing incremental support for NZD/USD, which is tracking the broader swings in the USD thus far. The cross last deals ~5 pips higher, hovering just above $0.6830.

  • This comes after fresh ’21 lows were lodged on Monday, with the rate bottoming out at $0.6788 in NY dealing. This now provides initial support, although there isn’t much located immediately blow, which begs the question of whether we are set for a period of prolonged weakness. The most obvious downside target resides at the November 2020 lows just below the $0.6600 mark. There isn’t much in the way of notable resistance until the 21-DMA.
  • The final NZ ANZ business confidence reading for the month of November wasn’t quite as soft as the flash reading, with the survey collator flagging that “overall, the full-month November ANZBO results show relatively small changes compared to the preliminary result. Business confidence, export intentions, and investment intentions were all a little higher, but own activity, and capacity utilisation dipped. Overall, the theme continues to be gradually easing activity indicators but cost and inflation pressures remain extreme.”
  • Meanwhile, local political headline flow points to the likelihood of Christopher Luxon becoming the leader of the official opposition, after Simon Bridges dropped out of what appeared to be a tight race.