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NZD: NZD/USD Breaks 0.5800, Makes New Yearly Lows

NZD
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  • NZD/USD closed 0.24% lower at 0.5785 on Wednesday, making fresh new yearly lows in the process. The move lower has tracked a steep sell-off in China's yuan, after reports that China will consider letting its currency fall in 2025.
  • The pair hovers near its two-year low at 0.5772, reflecting a bearish trend within a descending channel. It trades below all key EMAs, signaling bearish momentum, with the RSI nearing oversold territory at, currently at 36.
  • Immediate support lies at 0.5772 (2023 lows), a break here and the next major support isn't until the 2022 lows at 0.5500. Resistance levels are seen at 0.5872 (20-Day EMA), a break above here and 0.5900 becomes the target.
  • The OIS market has 43bps of cuts priced in for the Feb meeting in line with Wednesday. There is a cumulative 108bps of cuts priced in through to October 2025.
  • The NZ-USD 2yr swap was steady on Wednesday after hitting a low of -60bps last week, before a slight bounce to hold at -53bps right now.
  • New Zealand's retail card spending remained flat in November, following a revised 0.7% increase in October. Total card spending declined 0.1% m/m after a revised 0.2% gain previously. Fuel outlet sales rose 1.3% m/m, while core sales edged up 0.1% m/m.
  • Later today we have some NZGB auctions. There is little else on the calendar today with focus turning to tomorrows BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI
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  • NZD/USD closed 0.24% lower at 0.5785 on Wednesday, making fresh new yearly lows in the process. The move lower has tracked a steep sell-off in China's yuan, after reports that China will consider letting its currency fall in 2025.
  • The pair hovers near its two-year low at 0.5772, reflecting a bearish trend within a descending channel. It trades below all key EMAs, signaling bearish momentum, with the RSI nearing oversold territory at, currently at 36.
  • Immediate support lies at 0.5772 (2023 lows), a break here and the next major support isn't until the 2022 lows at 0.5500. Resistance levels are seen at 0.5872 (20-Day EMA), a break above here and 0.5900 becomes the target.
  • The OIS market has 43bps of cuts priced in for the Feb meeting in line with Wednesday. There is a cumulative 108bps of cuts priced in through to October 2025.
  • The NZ-USD 2yr swap was steady on Wednesday after hitting a low of -60bps last week, before a slight bounce to hold at -53bps right now.
  • New Zealand's retail card spending remained flat in November, following a revised 0.7% increase in October. Total card spending declined 0.1% m/m after a revised 0.2% gain previously. Fuel outlet sales rose 1.3% m/m, while core sales edged up 0.1% m/m.
  • Later today we have some NZGB auctions. There is little else on the calendar today with focus turning to tomorrows BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI