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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Higher, Under Performs G10 FX On China Tariffs News

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  • NZD/USD closed +0.3% at 0.56174 ending a five-day losing streak, but the recovery is weak and the overall trend remains bearish after falling below the 20-day EMA to a mid-February low. Technical indicators, including a negative RSI and a bearish MACD crossover, signal ongoing selling pressure and a shaky rebound.
  • NZD has underperformed most G10 currencies as the US imposes 20% tariffs on China
  • The pair did trade up 0.73% during the US session before headlines starting coming out from Trump on imposing tariffs on China & saying time has run out for Canada & Mexico. We tested key support on Monday at 0.5600, briefly trading below it below ticking higher a clear break here would then open up a move to retest the Feb 3 lows of 0.5516. To the upside, a break above the overnight highs of 0.5640, would then open a move to 0.5695/.5705 (20-, 50-Day EMA) are seen as key resistance.
  • New Zealand's home building approvals rose 2.6% m/m in January
  • Expiries 0.5855 (NZD869.3m). Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5795 (NZD1.14b March 7), 0.6350 (NZD352.8m March 5), 0.6150 (NZD330m March 6)
  • RBNZ dated-OIS is fully pricing in a 25bps cut in April, while there is about a 90% chance of a further 25bps cut priced for May up from about 70% mid last week, with a cumulative 76bps of cut priced by November, up from 64bps
  • There is nothing else on the calendar today, tomorrow we have ANZ Commodity Price
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  • NZD/USD closed +0.3% at 0.56174 ending a five-day losing streak, but the recovery is weak and the overall trend remains bearish after falling below the 20-day EMA to a mid-February low. Technical indicators, including a negative RSI and a bearish MACD crossover, signal ongoing selling pressure and a shaky rebound.
  • NZD has underperformed most G10 currencies as the US imposes 20% tariffs on China
  • The pair did trade up 0.73% during the US session before headlines starting coming out from Trump on imposing tariffs on China & saying time has run out for Canada & Mexico. We tested key support on Monday at 0.5600, briefly trading below it below ticking higher a clear break here would then open up a move to retest the Feb 3 lows of 0.5516. To the upside, a break above the overnight highs of 0.5640, would then open a move to 0.5695/.5705 (20-, 50-Day EMA) are seen as key resistance.
  • New Zealand's home building approvals rose 2.6% m/m in January
  • Expiries 0.5855 (NZD869.3m). Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5795 (NZD1.14b March 7), 0.6350 (NZD352.8m March 5), 0.6150 (NZD330m March 6)
  • RBNZ dated-OIS is fully pricing in a 25bps cut in April, while there is about a 90% chance of a further 25bps cut priced for May up from about 70% mid last week, with a cumulative 76bps of cut priced by November, up from 64bps
  • There is nothing else on the calendar today, tomorrow we have ANZ Commodity Price