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NZD: NZD/USD Ends 2024 At Years Low, NZ-US 2yr Swaps Nears 2018 Lows

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  • The NZD/USD ended 2024 at its lowest level for the year and continues to trade with a mild negative bias around 0.5595 in early morning trading here in Asia. The currency has been weighed down by RBNZ's dovish stance and Donald Trump’s tariff threats. A slower pace of Fed rate cuts in 2025 supports the USD, adding pressure on the pair. China's fresh stimulus measures, aimed at boosting the economy, may help cap the Kiwi's downside, with Investors awaiting China’s December PMI data for further direction.
  • Speculative net positions for the NZD worsened to -46.0K as of December 30, 2024, from -42.5K, indicating growing bearish sentiment, according to the CFTC. This trend may exert downward pressure on the NZD, impacting exchange rates and economic policies. Market focus now shifts to New Zealand's economic indicators and upcoming RBNZ decisions for potential shifts in sentiment.
  • The pair is now eyeing off the lows from 2022 of 0.5500, We trade well below all moving averages, while the RSI is now nearing it's most oversold for the past year, at 27. Initial resistance is at 0.5698 (20-day EMA)
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap remains at multi-year lows, currently -83.5bps, just shy of the 2018 lows of -100bps
  • Expiries: 0.6015 (NZD651.7m) while upcoming notable strikes are 0.5650 (NZD621m) on Jan. 3
  • The local calendar is light on this week with just CoreLogic Home Value after the close
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  • The NZD/USD ended 2024 at its lowest level for the year and continues to trade with a mild negative bias around 0.5595 in early morning trading here in Asia. The currency has been weighed down by RBNZ's dovish stance and Donald Trump’s tariff threats. A slower pace of Fed rate cuts in 2025 supports the USD, adding pressure on the pair. China's fresh stimulus measures, aimed at boosting the economy, may help cap the Kiwi's downside, with Investors awaiting China’s December PMI data for further direction.
  • Speculative net positions for the NZD worsened to -46.0K as of December 30, 2024, from -42.5K, indicating growing bearish sentiment, according to the CFTC. This trend may exert downward pressure on the NZD, impacting exchange rates and economic policies. Market focus now shifts to New Zealand's economic indicators and upcoming RBNZ decisions for potential shifts in sentiment.
  • The pair is now eyeing off the lows from 2022 of 0.5500, We trade well below all moving averages, while the RSI is now nearing it's most oversold for the past year, at 27. Initial resistance is at 0.5698 (20-day EMA)
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap remains at multi-year lows, currently -83.5bps, just shy of the 2018 lows of -100bps
  • Expiries: 0.6015 (NZD651.7m) while upcoming notable strikes are 0.5650 (NZD621m) on Jan. 3
  • The local calendar is light on this week with just CoreLogic Home Value after the close