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NZD: NZD/USD Fails To Break Back Above 0.5700, Trades On 20-Day EMA

NZD
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  • NZD was trading near 0.5700 ahead of NFP on Friday, before selling off slightly following softer-than-expected NFP. The NZD/USD closed -0.26% at 0.5660, and we now trade just above the 20-day EMA. NZGBS yields have risen this morning however largely in line with US tsys so far, higher yields could support the NZD with the NZ-US 2yr last +2bps at -75bps.
  • The NZD rose 0.50% over the past week, and now trades 1.18% higher Ytd behind the NOK, AUD & top performing currency JPY
  • Nonfarm payrolls were softer than expected in January alone at 143k (cons 175k) but the latest two-month revision of +100k more than offset this (almost evenly split across Dec and Nov). As such, the 143k followed two even stronger than previously thought months with 307k in Dec and 261k in Nov.
  • Key levels to keep an eye on to the downside is 0.5656 (20-day EMA) a break here would open a move back to Feb 3 lows of 0.5516. To the upside a break of the 50-day EMA at 0.5706 would be needed to test the ytd highs of 0.5723 (Jan 24).
  • No large nearby strikes Mon. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5935 (NZD411.1m Feb. 11), 0.5760 (NZD411.1m Feb. 12), 0.5725 (NZD399.9m Feb. 12)
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is holding steady across the next few meeting, The market is pricing in a 87% chance of a 50bps cut for Feb, another 25bps cut priced for April, and cumulative 116bps of cuts by Nov 2025, down from 135bps early Wednesday.
  • The local calendar is empty today, with the only data of note this week coming on Wednesday when BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI is due.
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  • NZD was trading near 0.5700 ahead of NFP on Friday, before selling off slightly following softer-than-expected NFP. The NZD/USD closed -0.26% at 0.5660, and we now trade just above the 20-day EMA. NZGBS yields have risen this morning however largely in line with US tsys so far, higher yields could support the NZD with the NZ-US 2yr last +2bps at -75bps.
  • The NZD rose 0.50% over the past week, and now trades 1.18% higher Ytd behind the NOK, AUD & top performing currency JPY
  • Nonfarm payrolls were softer than expected in January alone at 143k (cons 175k) but the latest two-month revision of +100k more than offset this (almost evenly split across Dec and Nov). As such, the 143k followed two even stronger than previously thought months with 307k in Dec and 261k in Nov.
  • Key levels to keep an eye on to the downside is 0.5656 (20-day EMA) a break here would open a move back to Feb 3 lows of 0.5516. To the upside a break of the 50-day EMA at 0.5706 would be needed to test the ytd highs of 0.5723 (Jan 24).
  • No large nearby strikes Mon. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5935 (NZD411.1m Feb. 11), 0.5760 (NZD411.1m Feb. 12), 0.5725 (NZD399.9m Feb. 12)
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is holding steady across the next few meeting, The market is pricing in a 87% chance of a 50bps cut for Feb, another 25bps cut priced for April, and cumulative 116bps of cuts by Nov 2025, down from 135bps early Wednesday.
  • The local calendar is empty today, with the only data of note this week coming on Wednesday when BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI is due.