MNI BRIEF: Cuts Should Be Timely But Cautious - Buba's Nagel

MNI BRIEF: ECB Policy Decisions Based On Broad Analysis- Lane

MNI BRIEF: Less Than Half Canada Firms See Inflation Obstacle

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 25

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.01% In Week of Nov 22

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY76.7 Bln via OMO Monday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 2/3-Month ATB Auction on Tuesday

MNI: BELGIUM NOV BNB BUSINESS SURVEY -11.1

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, DE Due on Tuesday

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

NZGBS: Bear Steepening Ahead Of The RBNZ Policy Decision

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 5bps cheaper after US tsy yields continued their march higher, prompted by a stronger-than-expected JOLTS report. US tsys bear-steepened, with yields 5-14bps higher across benchmarks.

  • US job openings unexpectedly rose sharply by 690k in August, breaking a run of declines (having declined for six of the previous seven months).
  • The local focus today is on the RBNZ Policy Decision. Bloomberg consensus expects no change in the policy rate for the 3rd consecutive meeting. The RBNZ last raised the OCR by 25bps to 5.50% in late May.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 2-3bps softer for meetings beyond Feb’24. There is an 18% chance of a 25bp hike today priced.
  • However, it is important to note that terminal OCR expectations have swung back towards the cycle high of 5.90%. At 5.81%, 31bp of additional tightening, the expected terminal rate is at its highest level since late May. A full 25bp hike is priced by February 2024.
  • Swap rates are 1-5bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • Late yesterday CoreLogic House Prices steadied in September following 17 consecutive monthly declines, adding to signs that the property market slump has ended. Prices were down 7.3% y/y in September, the smallest annual decline since January.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.