MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bostic Says Rates Should Stay Where They Are

MNI BRIEF: BOE Dhingra Sees US Tariff Price Impact Cushioned

MNI BRIEF: Canadian 2025 Capital Spending Seen +5.5%

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, February 26

MNI BRIEF: China Appoints Hua Chunying To CEEC

MNI CHINA MONEY MARKET INDEX: Easing Seen After Two Sessions

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-Month UKTB Auction on Friday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Italy, UK Auction on Thursday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -2.33M TO 430.2M FEB 21 WK

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BONDS: NZGBS: Bull-Flattener Ahead Of FOMC, Q3 GDP Tomorrow

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

NZGBs closed showing a modest bull-flattener, with yields flat to 3bps lower across benchmarks.

  • NZ Q3 GDP is released tomorrow with the production measure forecast to fall 0.2% q/q, the second consecutive quarterly decline. This would leave the annual rate at -0.4% slightly better than Q2’s -0.5%. While consensus is in line with the RBNZ’s November forecast, local banks are more pessimistic. Either way, further monetary easing is likely, including a possible 50bp at the February 19 meeting.
  • Projections from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are between +0.1% and -0.4% q/q with annual growth +0.1% to -0.5%. Most are forecasting a contraction of 0.2-0.4% q/q.
  • ASB, ANZ, BNZ and Westpac all expect an outcome worse than consensus at -0.4% q/q & -0.5% y/y, while Kiwibank is projecting -0.3% q/q and -0.4% y/y. This trend in domestic forecasts signals a possible downside surprise to Bloomberg consensus.
  • If GDP is in line with consensus, then the NZ economy would be in a technical recession, which last occurred over Q4 2022/Q1 2023. Growth has stagnated since then.
  • Swap rates closed 2-3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing shows 45bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 110bps by November 2025.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will also see ANZ Business Confidence.
200 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

NZGBs closed showing a modest bull-flattener, with yields flat to 3bps lower across benchmarks.

  • NZ Q3 GDP is released tomorrow with the production measure forecast to fall 0.2% q/q, the second consecutive quarterly decline. This would leave the annual rate at -0.4% slightly better than Q2’s -0.5%. While consensus is in line with the RBNZ’s November forecast, local banks are more pessimistic. Either way, further monetary easing is likely, including a possible 50bp at the February 19 meeting.
  • Projections from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are between +0.1% and -0.4% q/q with annual growth +0.1% to -0.5%. Most are forecasting a contraction of 0.2-0.4% q/q.
  • ASB, ANZ, BNZ and Westpac all expect an outcome worse than consensus at -0.4% q/q & -0.5% y/y, while Kiwibank is projecting -0.3% q/q and -0.4% y/y. This trend in domestic forecasts signals a possible downside surprise to Bloomberg consensus.
  • If GDP is in line with consensus, then the NZ economy would be in a technical recession, which last occurred over Q4 2022/Q1 2023. Growth has stagnated since then.
  • Swap rates closed 2-3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing shows 45bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 110bps by November 2025.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will also see ANZ Business Confidence.