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NZGBS: Cheap Despite Weak Labour Market Data

BONDS

NZGBs closed near session cheaps, with benchmark yields 1-4bps higher.

  • July filled jobs fell 0.1% m/m, the fourth straight monthly decline, to be down 0.5% y/y, the lowest annual growth since April 2010. Given that employment data is quarterly, and the next update is not until November 6 and filled jobs are on the RBNZ’s list of high-frequency data.
  • The series is an important gauge of labour market trends. To that end, the data signals weak labour demand continued at the start of Q3. This suggests cuts at the RBNZ’s two remaining 2024 meetings are likely.
  • "Weakness in the NZ housing market will persist this year but a recovery is ahead in 2025 as the RBNZ cuts interest rates and lenders follow suit with mortgages, ANZ Bank NZ says in an emailed note." (per BBG)
  • Swap rates closed flat to 2bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps firmer across meetings. A cumulative 72bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see ANZ Business Confidence ahead of ANZ Consumer Confidence and Building Permits on Friday.
  • Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.
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