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BONDS: NZGBS: Cheaper After US Tsys’ Sell-Off On Friday

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, the NZGB 10-year is 1bp cheaper after US tsys finished near NY session cheaps on Friday. Early support evaporated following the December manufacturing ISM survey. 

  • The ISM survey beat expectations but still pointed to soft if improving sectoral dynamics. The headline reading of 49.3 improved from 48.4 prior and a 9-month high, besting the survey expectation of 48.4.
  • US curves finished with mildly flatter. US projected rate cuts through mid-2025 were steady to lower vs. Friday morning's levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -13.2bp (-14.4bp), May'25 -17.8bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -26.5bp (-28.2bp).
  • This week, economic data and US Treasury supply are brought forward to accommodate Thursday's "day of mourning" to honour President Carter. The Federal holiday sees most markets closed; the exception so far is CME rates, which will operate on a shortened session.
  • Thursday's weekly jobless and continuing claims will be released on Wednesday according to the Dept of Labor site.
  • Swap rates are 2bps higher.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is slightly mixed. 54bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 130bps by November 2025.
  • The local calendar is light again this week, with tomorrow’s ANZ Commodity Prices as the sole release. 
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In local morning trade, the NZGB 10-year is 1bp cheaper after US tsys finished near NY session cheaps on Friday. Early support evaporated following the December manufacturing ISM survey. 

  • The ISM survey beat expectations but still pointed to soft if improving sectoral dynamics. The headline reading of 49.3 improved from 48.4 prior and a 9-month high, besting the survey expectation of 48.4.
  • US curves finished with mildly flatter. US projected rate cuts through mid-2025 were steady to lower vs. Friday morning's levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -13.2bp (-14.4bp), May'25 -17.8bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -26.5bp (-28.2bp).
  • This week, economic data and US Treasury supply are brought forward to accommodate Thursday's "day of mourning" to honour President Carter. The Federal holiday sees most markets closed; the exception so far is CME rates, which will operate on a shortened session.
  • Thursday's weekly jobless and continuing claims will be released on Wednesday according to the Dept of Labor site.
  • Swap rates are 2bps higher.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is slightly mixed. 54bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 130bps by November 2025.
  • The local calendar is light again this week, with tomorrow’s ANZ Commodity Prices as the sole release.