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NZGBS: Cheaper, Mid-Ranges Across Benchmarks, RBNZ Policy Decision Tomorrow

BONDS

NZGBs closed mid-range, with benchmark yields 4-6bps higher ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ policy decision. Bloomberg consensus expects the RBNZ to leave the cash rate unchanged at 5.50%.

  • There wasn’t much in the way of domestic drivers, other than the previously outlined Q3 NZIER survey of business opinion.
  • Accordingly, local participants were likely on headlines and US tsys watch. It is worth noting that the local market closed at the same time as the RBA delivered its policy decision.
  • Swap rates closed 2-4bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is mostly firmer across meetings, with a 17% chance of a 25bp hike tomorrow priced.
  • Terminal OCR expectations sit at 5.85%, the highest since late May. A full 25bp hike is priced by Feb'24.
  • Tomorrow the local calendar also sees CoreLogic House Prices.
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