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BONDS: NZGBS: Cheaper With US Tsys After US Payrolls Data

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 4-5bps cheaper after US tsys were pressured following Friday’s US Employment Report for January. 

  • US tsys gapped richer after lower-than-expected jobs gains for January, and a small dip in the unemployment rate -- but quickly reversed on robust two-month net revisions along with a smaller-than-expected benchmark revision.
  • Wage growth meanwhile surprisingly accelerated but against a notable caveat of average weekly hours sliding to lows last seen in the depths of the pandemic and mid-2010 (that’s despite the BLS saying adverse weather played no impact).
  • Headlines have crossed from Bloomberg, with US President Trump stating that the US will announce tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports from Monday. Trump didn't announce a time when these tariffs will take effect.
  • Swap rates are 4-6bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 49bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 122bps by November 2025.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty. The next event is a State of the Economy presentation by Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens on Wednesday. The next data release is Card Spending on Thursday. 
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are 4-5bps cheaper after US tsys were pressured following Friday’s US Employment Report for January. 

  • US tsys gapped richer after lower-than-expected jobs gains for January, and a small dip in the unemployment rate -- but quickly reversed on robust two-month net revisions along with a smaller-than-expected benchmark revision.
  • Wage growth meanwhile surprisingly accelerated but against a notable caveat of average weekly hours sliding to lows last seen in the depths of the pandemic and mid-2010 (that’s despite the BLS saying adverse weather played no impact).
  • Headlines have crossed from Bloomberg, with US President Trump stating that the US will announce tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports from Monday. Trump didn't announce a time when these tariffs will take effect.
  • Swap rates are 4-6bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 49bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 122bps by November 2025.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty. The next event is a State of the Economy presentation by Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens on Wednesday. The next data release is Card Spending on Thursday.