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NZGBS: Closed On A Weak Note, Focus On Wednesday’s RBNZ Policy Decision & US CPI

BONDS

NZGBs closed on a weak note, with yields 10bps higher across benchmarks. With the domestic calendar empty light today, the local market has moved in sync with US tsys. Cash US tsys have extended Friday’s post-payrolls cheapening in today’s Asia-Pac session, with benchmark yields 1-3bps higher.

  • Looking ahead, the focus for global bond investors is likely to be on US CPI and March FOMC minutes on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday.
  • Locally, however, attention is focused on the RBNZ Policy Decision on Wednesday. Consensus is unanimous in expecting the OCR to be left unchanged at 5.50%.
  • According to RBNZ dated OIS pricing, there is only a 4% probability assigned to a 25bp rate hike this week. However, what stands out more prominently is the indication that a cumulative easing of 62bps is still priced in by year-end.
  • Swap rates closed 6-8bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the NZIER Business Opinion Survey.
  • On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$275mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 2.0% May-32 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.
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