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NZGBS: Closed On A Weak Note, Pressured By JGBs, US NFP Due

BONDS

NZGBs closed on a weak note, with benchmark yields 2-5bps higher led by the 10-year. This move came despite weak Q3 Manufacturing Activity data, which printed -2.8% q/q versus +0.2% prior.

  • The key driver of today’s session has been spillover softness from global markets, particularly JGBs. The JGB curve has bear-steepened, with yields 1-7bps higher, following higher-than-expected labour and real cash earnings data. Today’s move extends the sell-off sparked by yesterday’s poor 30-year auction result.
  • Cash US tsys are 1bp cheaper across benchmarks so far in the Asia-Pac session, ahead of this evening’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.
  • Swap rates closed 2-8bps higher, with the 2s10s steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-2bps firmer for meetings beyond July’24. Terminal OCR expectations remain at 5.54% but the market now has two 25bp rate cuts fully priced by Nov’24.
  • On Monday, the local calendar sees Card Spending Retail and Net Migration data.
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