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NZGBS: Closed Slightly Richer Ahead Of US Payrolls Later Today

BONDS

NZGBs closed well off session cheaps, 2-3bps richer across benchmarks. With the domestic calendar empty, local participants were content to sit on the sidelines ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls later today.

  • Bloomberg consensus sees payroll growth of 200k for February, but two-month revisions will likely be closely watched. Please find the MNI's Preview here.
  • Swap rates closed 5-7bps lower, with implied swaps spreads 3-4bps tighter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 4bps softer across meetings, with Feb-25 leading. A cumulative 55bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Recently released quarterly indicators that feed into Q4 GDP have resulted in BNZ Economics nudging up its estimate to +0.1%. Against strong population growth of 0.6% for the quarter, this would represent another significant contraction in GDP per capita, with the economy experiencing conditions similar to the depths of the GFC on this basis.
  • Next week, the local calendar sees Card Spending on Tuesday, Food Prices on Wednesday, Net Migration on Thursday and BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
  • Also, RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr and Chief Economist, Paul Conway will speak about the February Monetary Policy Statement at separate events over 12-14 March 2024.

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