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NZGBS: Curve Steeper On Global Spill Over, Soft Data Noted

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Post-BoJ catch up and spill over from Wednesday’s global core FI impulse (at least that observed during Asia-Pac hours) biased NZGB yields higher, leaving the major benchmarks sitting 4-12bp cheaper at the close.

  • Swap rates were 3bp lower to 4bp higher, with the curve twist steepening, once again dragging the 2-/10-Year swap spread further away from its post-GFC lows.
  • RBNZ dated OIS was essentially unchanged on the day.
  • Local data wasn’t reassuring, as the expedited RBNZ tightening cycle continues to heap pressure on the economy (by design). M/M credit card spending was on the soft side, while there was another record low in the monthly ANZ consumer confidence headline print. The collator of the latter noted that “just like our Business Outlook survey, there appears to some post-MPS shock value in these figures. The RBNZ came out guns blazing in the November MPS, signalling further aggressive OCR hikes in 2023 and a technical recession. That’s clearly spooked the horses, but it’s not yet clear exactly how far they have bolted. All eyes are now on the degree of follow-through from businesses reporting negative employment intentions, and consumers saying they will significantly tighten their belts.”
  • The soft data domestic probably aided the steepening impulse.
  • The domestic docket is now empty into the Christmas break.
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Post-BoJ catch up and spill over from Wednesday’s global core FI impulse (at least that observed during Asia-Pac hours) biased NZGB yields higher, leaving the major benchmarks sitting 4-12bp cheaper at the close.

  • Swap rates were 3bp lower to 4bp higher, with the curve twist steepening, once again dragging the 2-/10-Year swap spread further away from its post-GFC lows.
  • RBNZ dated OIS was essentially unchanged on the day.
  • Local data wasn’t reassuring, as the expedited RBNZ tightening cycle continues to heap pressure on the economy (by design). M/M credit card spending was on the soft side, while there was another record low in the monthly ANZ consumer confidence headline print. The collator of the latter noted that “just like our Business Outlook survey, there appears to some post-MPS shock value in these figures. The RBNZ came out guns blazing in the November MPS, signalling further aggressive OCR hikes in 2023 and a technical recession. That’s clearly spooked the horses, but it’s not yet clear exactly how far they have bolted. All eyes are now on the degree of follow-through from businesses reporting negative employment intentions, and consumers saying they will significantly tighten their belts.”
  • The soft data domestic probably aided the steepening impulse.
  • The domestic docket is now empty into the Christmas break.