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MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, March 27

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NZGBS: Little Changed Come The Bell After Chinese Data Unwound Early Richening

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An early bid in NZGBs, which seemed to be linked to receiver side swap flows out to 5s, some gloomy details in the latest QSBO from the NZIER and some light richening in U.S. Tsys, has faded, with a firmer than expected round of Chinese data, headlined by the Q4 GDP reading, the reason for the pull back from best levels. NZGBs had been stickier when it came to the pre-data bid, with Tsys pulling away from best levels into the release.

  • That left the major NZGB benchmarks running 0.5bp richer to 1.0bp cheaper at the bell, with the curve twist steepening as it pivoted around 5s.
  • The twist steepening on the swap curve was a little more pronounced, with benchmark rates there running 2.5bp lower to 2bp higher, leading to mixed swap spread performance.
  • Major near-dated RBNZ OIS pricing was little changed, leaving ~62bp of tightening showing for next month’s gathering, alongside a terminal OCR of just over 5.40%.
  • Looking ahead, REINZ house price readings and card spending data headline the local docket on Wednesday.
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An early bid in NZGBs, which seemed to be linked to receiver side swap flows out to 5s, some gloomy details in the latest QSBO from the NZIER and some light richening in U.S. Tsys, has faded, with a firmer than expected round of Chinese data, headlined by the Q4 GDP reading, the reason for the pull back from best levels. NZGBs had been stickier when it came to the pre-data bid, with Tsys pulling away from best levels into the release.

  • That left the major NZGB benchmarks running 0.5bp richer to 1.0bp cheaper at the bell, with the curve twist steepening as it pivoted around 5s.
  • The twist steepening on the swap curve was a little more pronounced, with benchmark rates there running 2.5bp lower to 2bp higher, leading to mixed swap spread performance.
  • Major near-dated RBNZ OIS pricing was little changed, leaving ~62bp of tightening showing for next month’s gathering, alongside a terminal OCR of just over 5.40%.
  • Looking ahead, REINZ house price readings and card spending data headline the local docket on Wednesday.