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Free AccessNZGBS: Little Changed Despite Further Strength For US Tsys
In local morning trade, NZGBs are little changed despite US Tsys extending the post-FOMC rally on heavy volume. The 10-year yield fell to a 5-month low of 3.88% as the market continued to react to Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, which acknowledged inflation had eased. It also reiterated that the Fed is "prepared to tighten policy further, if appropriate".
- Barclays has revised its Fed rate cut call to reflect the dovish message from yesterday's FOMC communications, and this week's soft CPI/PPI inflation data. Following the meeting, they now see three rate cuts in 2024, starting in June.
- JPMorgan has also shifted its first cut date forward: "With the recent better news on PCE inflation, and with the Committee signalling that further inflation progress will be sufficient for easier policy, we now look for a first cut in June (previously July) and for a target range 125bp lower by year-end."
- Both the ECB and BOE left rates on hold but signalled that bets on imminent rate cuts may be premature.
- NZ’s manufacturing PMI rose to 46.7 in November from a revised 42.9 in October.
- Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.