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NZGBS: Richer After A Strong NY Session For US Tsys, RBNZ Policy Decision Tomorrow

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are showing a bull-flattening, with yields 2-7bps lower. US tsys returned from holiday with a strong NY session. US yields finished close to or at session highs, 7-8bps lower across benchmarks.

  • The rally in US tsys followed in EGB's footsteps after German fiscal matters suggested no net new debt issuance this year and Lagarde looked at PEPP reinvestments in the not-too-distant future (Bund yields closed -10bps). Softer than expected lower tier data in new home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity were supportive.
  • A poor 2Y auction results briefly stalled the rally, but the cheapening impulse was quickly unwound before a modest 0.5bp trade-through for the 5Y auction allowed the rally to move forward. The 5Y auction was better than October’s (the weakest of the year) but certainly wasn't stellar with bid-to-cover and dealer take-up both suggesting a weaker auction result than the five-auction average.
  • Swap rates are 6-9bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across meetings, with mid’24 leading. Terminal OCR expectations remain at 5.54% ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ policy decision. Bloomberg consensus is unanimous in expecting an unchanged decision.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty.
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