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NZGBS: Richer Ahead Of RBNZ Decision, Net Migration Data Due

BONDS

In early local trade, NZGBs are 3-4bp richer ahead of the RBNZ Policy Decision today. The US tsys curve twist flattened in a generally quiet NY session ahead of US CPI data today.

  • Swap rates are 3bp lower.
  • In May the RBNZ hiked rates 25bp to be in line with its updated but unchanged Q2 2023 OCR forecast of 5.5%. This last hike gave the Committee confidence that it had done enough to contain inflation and with that, it shifted to a neutral stance.
  • With the data since then generally showing slowing activity, survey measures of inflation gradually easing, and rates in line with the RBNZ forecast, the RBNZ is likely to be on hold for the first time since August 2021. See the MNI RBNZ Preview here.
  • Markets have a 10% chance of a 25bp hike priced today. Terminal OCR expectations sit at 5.70% versus 5.81% at the start of the week and 5.67% on Friday.
  • Today local calendar also sees Net Migration data. The market will be watching to see if the sharp slowing in net permanent and long-term inflows in April extends into May. This would raise the prospect that the boost to the NZ resident population may be less than expected.
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