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NZGBS Richer Ahead of US CPI

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NZGBs are 3-4bps richer with the curve slightly flatter, we are trading at best levels of the session as we head into the close, yields have now fallen for the fourth straight day. It has been a quiet day for data int he region, while China announced new plans to support the struggling local property market, focus now turns to US CPI due out later today.

  • US treasury futures initially opened a touch weaker this morning, although those moves have been erased and we now trade little changed across the curve with the 10Y at unchanged at 109-03, while the 2Y is (- 00.375) at 101-22.75
  • NZGB yields opened lower this morning, and continued that move into the close to finishing the session 3-4bps richer, the 5y10y is little changed -0.400 at 11.80
  • NZ population growth is slowing due to reduced inward immigration and increasing emigration of citizens seeking better job prospects abroad. Despite ongoing immigration, which contributes to housing demand and inflation concerns, the pace of population increase in the first quarter was the slowest since 2022, as per BBG.
  • Swap rates are 1-3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is unchanged this morning, with a cumulative 46.5bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Looking Ahead: Non Resident Bond Holdings on Thursday and PPI input/output on Friday
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NZGBs are 3-4bps richer with the curve slightly flatter, we are trading at best levels of the session as we head into the close, yields have now fallen for the fourth straight day. It has been a quiet day for data int he region, while China announced new plans to support the struggling local property market, focus now turns to US CPI due out later today.

  • US treasury futures initially opened a touch weaker this morning, although those moves have been erased and we now trade little changed across the curve with the 10Y at unchanged at 109-03, while the 2Y is (- 00.375) at 101-22.75
  • NZGB yields opened lower this morning, and continued that move into the close to finishing the session 3-4bps richer, the 5y10y is little changed -0.400 at 11.80
  • NZ population growth is slowing due to reduced inward immigration and increasing emigration of citizens seeking better job prospects abroad. Despite ongoing immigration, which contributes to housing demand and inflation concerns, the pace of population increase in the first quarter was the slowest since 2022, as per BBG.
  • Swap rates are 1-3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is unchanged this morning, with a cumulative 46.5bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Looking Ahead: Non Resident Bond Holdings on Thursday and PPI input/output on Friday