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NZGBS: Richer, US Tsys Twist-Steepen Ahead Of US Payrolls

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MarketsStoryFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 6-7bps richer after the US tsy curve twist-steepened, with benchmark yields 5bps lower to 1bp higher. The US 10-year finished unchanged. 

  • Busy session as rates see-sawed off early highs, heavy volumes (TYM5 near 3M after the bell) as rates rallied after Challenger job cut announcements surged in February to 172k, a 103% y/y increase largely tied to government layoffs.
  • Rates pared gains after weekly jobless claims: Initial claims were lower than expected at 221k (sa, cons 233k) in the week to March 1, after an unrevised 242k.
  • "New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis is taking advice on how to compel the central bank to loosen bank capital rules, which she believes could improve the economy and reduce the cost of living." (per BBG)
  • Swap rates are lower with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 25bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 69bps by November 2025.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty ahead of US payrolls data later today. Fed Chair Powell will discuss his economic outlook (text, Q&A) at Chicago Booth's Monetary Policy Forum at 1230ET.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are 6-7bps richer after the US tsy curve twist-steepened, with benchmark yields 5bps lower to 1bp higher. The US 10-year finished unchanged. 

  • Busy session as rates see-sawed off early highs, heavy volumes (TYM5 near 3M after the bell) as rates rallied after Challenger job cut announcements surged in February to 172k, a 103% y/y increase largely tied to government layoffs.
  • Rates pared gains after weekly jobless claims: Initial claims were lower than expected at 221k (sa, cons 233k) in the week to March 1, after an unrevised 242k.
  • "New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis is taking advice on how to compel the central bank to loosen bank capital rules, which she believes could improve the economy and reduce the cost of living." (per BBG)
  • Swap rates are lower with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 25bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 69bps by November 2025.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty ahead of US payrolls data later today. Fed Chair Powell will discuss his economic outlook (text, Q&A) at Chicago Booth's Monetary Policy Forum at 1230ET.