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NZGBS: Richer With US Tsys, Canadian CPI Cools

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 3-4bps richer after US tsy yields finished 6-9bps lower on a news flow light session. The Philly Fed non-mfg index printed lower than expected.

  • Also, Canadian CPI inflation fell to 2.5% y/y in July. The core measure based on an average of the median and trimmed mean fell to 2.55%, slightly below consensus. Both figures were at their lowest levels in over 3 years.
  • Fed Bowman said Tuesday the Fed should cut interest rates if inflation continues to move towards the central bank's 2% goal, noting further welcome progress on inflation in the past couple of months despite upside risks.
  • Projected US rate cuts through year end gained: Sep'24 cumulative -33bps (-31bps), Nov'24 cumulative -63bps (-61bps) and Dec'24 -97bps (-94bps).
  • The focus now turns to Wednesday afternoon's July FOMC minutes.
  • The BNZ Job Ads Index gained 2.4% m/m in July following an 8% decline in June. “Gains have been few and far between in a very strong downtrend that started back in late 2022. The trend in job ads remains firmly downward”: BNZ
  • Swap rates are 2-4bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps softer across meetings. A cumulative 71bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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