NZGBS: Slightly Cheaper, Modest Net Movement In US Tsys Overnight

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 1-2bps cheaper after US tsys finished with a mild twist-steepening on a news flow light session.

• Projected US rate cut pricing through year-end gained: Sep'24 cumulative -34bps (-32bps), Nov'24 cumulative -67bps (-65bps), Dec'24 -105bps (-99bps)
• Today, the US calendar will see MBA Mortgage Applications, US Tsy auctions including $28bn 2-year & $70bn 5-year and Atlanta Fed Bostic discussing his economic outlook.
• US equities remain in a consolidation mode, with the market awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report tomorrow. Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research said his “sense is that Nvidia’s earnings report after the close on Wednesday [in New York] will set the tone for markets before the key payrolls report on September 6^th. (per AFR)
• Swap rates are flat to 2bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. A cumulative 73bps of easing is priced by year-end.
• NZ Filled Jobs fell 0.1% m/m in July versus a revised -0.3% in June.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see ANZ Business Confidence ahead of ANZ Consumer Confidence and Building Permits on Friday.
• Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.