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Free AccessNZGBS: Strong Post-RBNZ Rally, 74bps Of Additional Easing By November
NZGBs closed 6-13bps richer on the day, with a steeper 2/10 curve, after the RBNZ cut the OCR 25bps to 5.25%.
- Governor Orr said that today’s 25bp rate cut was not a difficult decision as the RBNZ is now “confident” about inflation returning to target due to pricing behaviour adjusting to lower inflation and greater spare capacity.
- Also, a 50bp move was discussed, but the MPC took the cautious approach, and the revised OCR path reflects this. Future cuts will be data-dependent.
- The significant change in forecasts was discussed and Orr said this was typical of turning points. The RBNZ had noted risks in both directions in May and that the growth risks had materialised. The possibilities are now more balanced.
- Swap rates are 7-13bps lower on the day.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 10-18bps softer across meetings after the RBNZ Decision. The market had attached a 58% chance of a 25bp cut today.
- The market is pricing another 32bps of easing for the October meeting and an additional 74bps by November.
- RBNZ Governor Orr will front of the Parliament Select Committee on MPS tomorrow.
- Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 4.50% Apr-27 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.