NZGBS: Unchanged, Subdue Start To Week As Global Bonds Await US CPI & FOMC Minutes

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper after a subdued start to the week for US tsys, as investors awaited Wednesday's CPI report and the FOMC minutes. US PPI on Thursday. Without catalysts, trading ranges were relatively tight.

• The US tsy 10-year yield rose to the highest since November and came within a striking distance of 4.5%, before finishing 2bps higher at 4.42%. The US 2-year note finished 4bps higher at 4.79%.
• US equities finished little changed, while gold improved by 0.4% to $2339.03 per ounce, yet another new record. Crude oil finished -0.5% lower at $86.43 per barrel, after recovering from its dip to $84.69 per barrel.
• Swap rates are unchanged.
• (Bloomberg) NZ businesses are more downbeat about the economy while their assessment of their own trading makes for sombre reading, the NZIER Principal Economist Christina Leung said Tuesday in a presentation of the quarterly survey of business opinion.
• Tomorrow sees the RBNZ Policy Decision, with consensus unanimous in expecting the OCR to be left unchanged at 5.50%.
• According to RBNZ dated OIS pricing, there is only a 5% probability assigned to a 25bp rate hike this week. However, what stands out more prominently is the indication that a cumulative easing of 60bps is still priced in by year-end.