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NZGBS: Weaker, Outperforms ACGBs, Awaits US Payrolls Data

BONDS

NZGBs closed 5-7bp weaker but off session cheaps. Without a domestic catalyst, local participants have likely sought direction from US tsys ahead of non-farm payrolls. NZ/US 10-year yield differential closed unchanged on the day. NZGBs did however outperform ACGBs with the 10-year yield differential 3bp tighter at +64bp.

  • US tsys have twist flattened, pivoting at the 7-year, in Asia-Pac trade with rates +2bp to -2bp.
  • Swap rates closed 6bp higher.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings with terminal rate expectations at 5.65%.
  • The local calendar has no economic data on Monday. The next key release is Retail Card Spending for July on Wednesday.
  • Later today sees the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls, with +200k expected versus +209k prior. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.6%. AHE is seen moderating to 0.3% m/m, although it doesn’t take much from an unrounded 0.36% m/m. No change is expected in average hours worked. (See MNI NFP Preview here)
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