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NZGBS: Yields Slightly Softer, Fed Chair Powell Remained On Message

BONDS

In early local trade, NZGBs are trading 2bp richer, aligning with US tsys finishing near NY session highs. The steady climb in tsys came after initially dipping in response to remarks made by Fed Chair Powell at the ECB Forum earlier in the day.

  • Fed Chair Powell said that “although policy is restrictive, it may not be restrictive enough and it has not been restrictive for long enough”, keeping alive the chance of two more rate hikes this year. He wouldn’t rule out consecutive rate hikes, after keeping rates unchanged at the June meeting.
  • Market confidence of a hike at the July 26 FOMC climbed to 78%. November is pricing a cumulative 29bp of tightening at 5.364%.
  • Swap rates are 2bp lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is mixed with ’23 meetings flat to -2bp softer and ’24 meetings flat to 3bp firmer.
  • Treasury names ANZ Bank New Zealand, Commonwealth Bank, UBS and Westpac as joint lead managers to form the panel for the syndicated tap of the 14 April 2033 nominal bond. Treasury expects to launch this transaction in July, subject to market conditions.
  • The local calendar sees the release of the latest ANZ Business Outlook survey.
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