NZIER's Monetary Policy Shadow Board have......>

RBNZ: NZIER's Monetary Policy Shadow Board have lowered their recommendation for

the OCR but remained centred on a no-change decision for Wednesday. There was a

wide range of views this time, and NZIER Shadow Board members distinguished

between their views on what they think the Reserve Bank will do, versus what it

should do. Nonetheless, there was a stronger easing bias amongst the NZIER

Shadow Board, relative to June.

- "The RBNZ noted a lower OCR may be needed given it saw downside risks around

the employment and inflation outlook. The Reserve Bank's concern, combined with

recent activity indicators showing a further weakening in business confidence

and some slowing in demand, means that at least one further OCR cut is likely.

- The majority of the NZIER Shadow Board still believes it is appropriate to

leave the OCR on hold at this meeting. There was scepticism amongst some Board

members that further monetary policy easing would boost activity and inflation,

and undesired consequences from interest rates being too low was also

highlighted." said Christina Leung, Principal Economist at NZIER.

- Link: https://tinyurl.com/y3aqof83