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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
WHITE HOUSE
In a widely-expected, but nevertheless symbolically important move, former President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama have endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic presidential nominee. The endorsement of the Obamas means that Harris has the backing of all high-profile Democrats ranging from incumbent President Joe Biden, to former President Bill and 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton, to the Democratic leaders in Congress Sen Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
- These endorsements, combined with the backing of more than half of the DNC delegates released after Biden's withdrawal makes Harris all-but-certain to be the Democrat nominee (she is not the 'presumptive nominee', that term is used to describe the candidate who has won a majority of delegates in the primary season).
- NYT reports that Harris is set to name her running mate by 7 Aug, a significantly truncated period of vetting compared to a normal campaign. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) areseen by bettorsas the two frontrunners amid a crowded field.
- Harris continues to trail former President Donald Trump in political betting markets, with the GOP nominee given a 57.8% implied probability of winning compared to 38.5% for Harris according to data from Electionbettingodds.com.
- Swing state polling published on 25 July (see 'US: Trump Leads In 4/5 Swing States, But Harris Narrows Gap Compared To Biden' 1134BST 25 Jul) shows Trump leading in key states, but crucially within the margin of error making them effective dead-heats.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Election Winner, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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