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GERMAN DATA: October Factory Orders Solid Given Revisions, Outlook Weak (1/2)

GERMAN DATA
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German factory orders fell less than expected in October (-1.5% M/M vs -2.0% cons; +7.2% prior, revised from +4.2%). There was also a 3.2ppt upward revision to September data which Destatis notes is "due to a subsequently reported major order in shipbuilding." Destatis also states that "The overall result in October 2024 is also strongly characterised by major orders in the shipbuilding segment."

  • Overall, the level of factory orders in October is even stronger than the 0.5ppt upside surprise to consensus would suggest. However, given the two months of major shipbuilding orders, there is also a good chance that the headline November M/M print could be even more negative than today's October print. With sentiment remaining close to cycle lows, today's upward surprise should bring little change for the overall bleak picture in German manufacturing.
  • Underlying core orders were broadly unchanged on a sequential comparison. The core 3m/3m measure shows a slightly more noticeable deterioration than previously, at -0.7% vs -0.4% prior.
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German factory orders fell less than expected in October (-1.5% M/M vs -2.0% cons; +7.2% prior, revised from +4.2%). There was also a 3.2ppt upward revision to September data which Destatis notes is "due to a subsequently reported major order in shipbuilding." Destatis also states that "The overall result in October 2024 is also strongly characterised by major orders in the shipbuilding segment."

  • Overall, the level of factory orders in October is even stronger than the 0.5ppt upside surprise to consensus would suggest. However, given the two months of major shipbuilding orders, there is also a good chance that the headline November M/M print could be even more negative than today's October print. With sentiment remaining close to cycle lows, today's upward surprise should bring little change for the overall bleak picture in German manufacturing.
  • Underlying core orders were broadly unchanged on a sequential comparison. The core 3m/3m measure shows a slightly more noticeable deterioration than previously, at -0.7% vs -0.4% prior.