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October Flash CPI Upside Surprise to 10.4% Likely

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

Following a slew of higher-than-anticipated state CPI data this morning, the implied German flash CPI print for October should be in the order of +0.9% m/m and +10.4% y/y.

  • This is based on a weighted average of the index values of 88.1% of regional data available prior to the release.
  • This implies a decent beat on headline inflation, as consensus was looking for +10.1% y/y and +0.6% m/m following +10.0% y/y and +1.9% m/m in September.
  • Energy and food prices will have again fuelled the surge in German prices.
  • Furthermore, numerous regional reports also flagged a strong increase in durable goods such as clothing and furniture, implying that price pressures continue to become more broad-based and a likely uptick in headline core CPI will ensue.
M/MOct (Report)Sep (Report)DifferenceWeighting
North Rhine Westphalia1.2%1.8%-0.6%21.7%
Hesse1.1%1.4%-0.3%7.7%
Bavaria0.7%2.2%-1.5%16.8%
Brandenburg1.1%1.8%-0.7%2.6%
Baden Wuert.0.8%2.0%-1.2%14.1%
Berlin0.7%1.8%-1.1%3.9%
Saxony 1.2%1.8%-0.6%4.4%
Rhineland-Palatinate0.6%1.6%-1.0%5.1%
Lower Saxony0.8%2.0%-1.2%9.4%
Saxony-Anhalt0.8%2.0%-1.2%2.4%
Weighted average: +0.94% m/mfor 88.1%
Y/YOct (Report)Sep (Report)DifferenceWeighting
North Rhine Westphalia11.0%10.1%0.9%21.7%
Hesse9.9%9.4%0.5%7.7%
Bavaria11.0%10.8%0.2%16.8%
Brandenburg10.8%9.9%0.9%2.6%
Baden Wuert.9.8%9.5%0.3%14.1%
Berlin9.9%9.6%0.3%3.9%
Saxony 10.1%9.2%0.9%4.4%
Rhineland-Palatinate9.7%9.8%-0.1%5.1%
Lower Saxony10.5%10.1%0.4%9.4%
Saxony-Anhalt10.5%10.7%-0.2%2.4%
Weighted average: +10.42% y/yfor 88.1%

Source: MNI / individual state statistic offices

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