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October Inflation Data In Focus Before Banxico Meeting

MEXICO
  • Inflation is expected to extend its upward trend in October to 6.19% Y/y. Analysts have placed particular significance on today's price data as it provides the final piece of inflation information before Thursday's central bank meeting.
  • With soaring inflation expectations, some forecasters are now predicting an acceleration of Banxico's hiking pace to 50bps at the November meeting. Several analysts that are currently calling for another 25bp hike have mentioned the importance of today's data. Further significant upside surprises are likely to heavily impact both Banxico's policy discussion and forecasts for Thursday's announcement.
  • Deputy Governor Heath reiterated climbing prices remain the most worrisome compared to the recent poor activity data, especially core dynamics. Core inflation is likely to rise from 4.92% in September. Goods inflation is poised to extend its uptrend after rising to 6.26%, in line with higher import prices and lingering supply shocks. Services inflation may increase from 3.43% prior on recovering domestic demand.
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. CPI MoM, est. 0.79%, prior 0.62%
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. CPI Core MoM, est. 0.47%, prior 0.46%
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. CPI YoY, est. 6.19%, prior 6.00%
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. Bi-Weekly CPI, est. 0.28%, prior 0.54%
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. Bi- Weekly Core CPI, est. 0.16%, prior 0.33%
    • 1500GMT/1000ET: Nov. International Reserves Weekly, prior $198.9b

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