Free Trial

Odds Of First Cut In April Hold Trimming To ~50%

CANADA
  • After some initial two-way moves around the cash open, GoCs are happy for Tsys set the tone trading 1.5-3bp cheaper across the curve.
  • That could remain the case for the session with a blank CAD docket, although any larger moves could be faded somewhat with tomorrow’s BoC decision in mind: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59603/BOCPreviewJan2024.pdf
  • BoC-dated OIS holds yesterday’s push higher to imply now just ~50% probability of a first cut in April, with the implied rate of 4.91% for the April meeting the highest since mid-November (CORRA-O/N spread still around 4-5bps).

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.