Odds Of Government Shutdown Shorten After Bruising Week For Speaker McCarthy

Analysts now consider the chance of a government shutdown on October 1 the most likely scenario after a week which saw House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) forced to abandon plans to hold a weekend vote on a partisan 30-day stopgap measure to keep the government funding beyond September 30.

• PIMCO: “The chances of a government shutdown are increasing – our odds had been at ~65%+ odds (i.e., more likely than not), but after the last few days, folks on the Hill are now putting the odds of a shutdown between 80-99%.”
• PIMCO: continues: "McCarthy “now faces a Sophie’s choice: 1) Work on a bipartisan basis (i.e., with Democrats) .. and very likely lose his speakership, or 2) insist on passing bills that may appease the House Freedom Caucus, but have no chance of being signed into law..."
• Lawmakers will have five days to avert a government shutdown when Congress returns on Tuesday.
• Reuters has published a useful guide of what would be affected by a government shutdown, including, “roughly half of the Pentagon's 800,000 civilian employees would be furloughed”: Here