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Off Cheaps, Narrow Ranges, Focus On Wednesday’s US CPI & FOMC

AUSSIE BONDS

In roll-impacted dealings, ACGBs (YM -0.4 & XM -1.3) are little changed and off early session cheaps after resuming trading following yesterday’s holiday.

  • Outside of the previously outlined NAB business survey, there hasn't been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session as investors keenly await two key events on Wednesday: the latest US CPI data and the latest thoughts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following the FOMC Decision.
  • A Bloomberg survey showed that 41% of economists expect the central bank to signal two cuts, while an equal percentage forecast either one cut or none at all.
  • Cash ACGBs are 7-9bps higher than Friday’s close and well above session cheaps, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 6-8bps higher, with EFPs tighter and the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is little changed after giving up the early bear-steepening.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 4-7bps firmer for meetings beyond September, with early 2025 leading. 5bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty, ahead of the Employment Report and CBA Household Spending data on Thursday.
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